(Bloomberg) — The $29 trillion Treasury market is set to wrap up a strong month, with investors eyeing trade war risks and pivotal labor data that may help shape the path of Federal Reserve interest-rate policy.
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A Bloomberg gauge of US government debt returns is up some 2% in March, with the rally pushing 10-year yields lower by about a half a percentage point from their 2025 peak. Two-year yields, meanwhile, have fallen below 4% as traders price in two rate cuts this year and see coin-flip odds of a third.
Employment data for March, slated for release on Friday, stands to impact those wagers given Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s has said officials were in no need to rush to adjust rates in part because labor market “conditions remain solid.” JOLTS job openings will come on Tuesday and add insights on the labor market, as will Wednesday’s ADP labor figures.
What to Watch
Economic data:
March 31: MNI Chicago PMI; Dallas Fed manufacturing activity
April 1: S&P Global US manufacturing PMI; construction spending; JOLTS job openings; ISM manufacturing; Dallas Fed services activity; Wards vehicle sales
April 2: MBA mortgage applications; ADP employment; factory orders; durable/capital goods
April 3: Challenger job cuts; initial jobless claims; S&P Global US services PMI
April 4: Non-farm payrolls for March, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings
Fed calendar:
April 1: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin
April 2: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler
April 3: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson; Fed Governor Lisa Cook
April 4: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks about the economic outlook; Fed Governor Michael Barr; Fed Governor Chris Waller
Auction calendar:
March 31: 13-, 26-week bills
April 1: 6-week bills; 14-day cash management bills
April 2: 17-week bills
April 3: 4-, 8-week bills
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