(Bloomberg) — Elon Musk’s candidate faced a resounding loss in a Wisconsin judicial race despite the world’s richest man pouring millions into the campaign, while Republicans avoided upsets in two critical US House seats in Donald Trump’s home state of Florida.
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The votes were the first major elections since Trump took office in January, a chance for a gut-check from the electorate on the president’s sweeping effort to slash the size of government and, through tariffs and the promise of more tax cuts to come, remake the US economy.
Taken together, Tuesday’s special election outcomes came to a draw. Republicans couldn’t break the 4-3 liberal majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, while Democrats fell short in their longshot bids to win either of two heavily Republican House seats, which would’ve complicated the GOP’s efforts to advance Trump’s tax cut plan through Congress.
The biggest warning signs were for Musk, who poured roughly $20 million into what became the most expensive judicial race in US history, only to have the contest morph into a referendum on himself and his prominent role in reshaping the federal bureaucracy in the image of Trump.
Just five months ago, Trump won the bellwether state of Wisconsin on his way to sweeping all seven swing states. The Badger State has become a reliable indicator of national sentiment, backing Barack Obama twice before flipping to Trump in 2016, back to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, then again to Trump in 2024.
Though the high court race is officially nonpartisan, partisan lines were clearly drawn. Musk and Trump backed former state attorney general Brad Schimel, while Democrats lined up behind Susan Crawford, a circuit court judge in Dane County, home of the University of Wisconsin and the state capital, Madison.
With more than 90% of votes in, Crawford led 54% to 46%, according to the Associated Press, a resounding blow to Musk, and a 10-point reversal from Trump’s own one-point win last autumn.
“I’ve gotta tell ya, as a little girl growing up in Chippewa Falls, I could have never imagined that I’d be taking on the richest man in the world for justice in Wisconsin,” Crawford told supporters in her victory speech late Tuesday. “And we won!”
The off-year race may have major implications for future cases including on abortion rights and labor laws, as well as for congressional redistricting plans ahead of next year’s midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race. Republicans hold six of Wisconsin’s eight congressional seats, but any new district maps could alter that balance, imperiling the narrow advantage the party holds in the US House of Representatives.
Meanwhile in Florida on Tuesday, Republicans held onto two House seats in a pair of special elections, albeit with much smaller margins than the GOP candidates had in the November general election. Musk also poured money into the state in the final days as some Republicans publicly aired concerns that they had failed to sew up at least one of the two reliably GOP districts.
In the end, Republicans were able to safely hold the seats, winning about 57% of the vote in both districts, according to AP tallies with more than 95% of the votes in. Yet that’s down from the roughly two-thirds of the vote that GOP candidates there each won in the November elections.
State Senator Randy Fine won the seat left open by National Security Advisor Michael Waltz in a largely conservative area that includes Daytona Beach on Florida’s northeast coast. Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer, will fill the seat previously held by Matt Gaetz in the Florida Panhandle.
The victories will slightly pad the Republicans’ thin majority in the US House, adding crucial votes as they prepare to move Trump’s tax and immigration plans through Congress. Both men, backed by Trump, have pledged to be loyal supporters of his agenda.
Trump, in a series of Tuesday evening Truth Social posts, praised both Fine and Patronis, saying that his endorsement proved “FAR GREATER” than Democrats’ efforts. As of midnight, Washington time, the president had yet to comment on the Wisconsin high court race.
Musk’s Playbook
In Wisconsin, Musk deployed the unorthodox playbook that brought him success in 2024, albeit one that has tested campaign finance laws, in support of Schimel. Musk and two groups he funds paid canvassers, bought broadcast ads and even gave away a handful of checks in the amount of $1 million to voters who signed a petition circulated by America PAC, his super political action committee.
Conservatives rallied behind Schimel in a bid to wrest control of the state Supreme Court, including Trump who endorsed the candidate about two weeks before the election. Democrats similarly highlighted the broader significance with US House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries saying a Crawford victory was crucial to “have fair lines” drawn for congressional districts.
The Tesla Inc. and SpaceX executive highlighted the stakes in a recent interview with Fox News, claiming that Democrats were trying to unfairly redraw congressional lines.
“The Democrats are trying to redraw the districts in Wisconsin, and we’re trying to stop the Democrats from gerrymandering Wisconsin,” Musk said. “That’s what this whole Supreme Court Justice case is about.”
Approximately $82 million was spent by campaigns and outside groups, according to the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign.
The race drew heavyweight donors beyond Musk in support of Schimel, including Americans for Prosperity, largely funded by billionaire Charles Koch, and Fair Courts America, backed by Uline Inc. co-founder Richard Uihlein.
Deep-pocketed Democrats, though, helped Crawford, whose campaign raised $24.6 million, more than double Schimel’s haul. Those contributors included famed Hollywood producer Steven Spielberg, venture capitalist John O’Farrell of Andreessen Horowitz and physician Karla Jurvetson, a major Democratic donor.
Crawford’s victory is likely to bolster Democrats in the state and nationally with the party largely struggling to decide how best to counter Trump’s second term agenda. Trump’s frenetic pace has seen a flurry of executive actions as he looks to reshape the US economy and government.
–With assistance from Anna J Kaiser, Romy Varghese, Meghashyam Mali and Chelsea Mes.
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