DHL has released a study looking at global trade for 2025 and how U.S. trade policy may impact it. The findings in the “DHL Trade Atlas 2025” report offer plenty of uncertainty on global trade and the U.S. as most trade partners wait for possible tariffs of varying percentages to take effect April 2 or be extended again. Amid that uncertainty, the global supply chain show must go on.
The report found that global trade is expected to grow moderately faster over the next five years compared with the previous decade. The growth will be a little slower than expected should the U.S. tariffs kick in and other countries retaliate.
The share of U.S. imports coming directly from China continues to fall, but U.S. reliance on made-in-China goods has not declined substantially. U.S. imports from other countries have more inputs from China, and U.S. direct imports from China may be underreported.
Three main findings in the report:
Only 21% of the value of all goods and services produced around the world ultimately ends up in a different country from where it was produced. There is still very large potential for trade growth.
Three countries ranked among the top 30 on both the speed (growth rate) and scale (trade volume) of their goods trade over the past five years: the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam and Ireland.
During the next five years, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed and scale of trade growth. India also stands out as the country with the third-largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6% of additional global trade), behind only China (12%) and the United States (10%).
The United States’ role in global trade, while significant, is not substantial enough to singlehandedly cause a reversal of global trade patterns. Currently, the U.S. accounts for 13% of global goods imports and 9% of global goods exports, the report notes. This means that while U.S. trade policies can certainly create disruptions that impact the rest of the world, their overall effect is unlikely to collapse the global trading system. Even if the U.S. were to significantly reduce its imports, some portion of that trade would be replaced by increased trade among other countries.
Market Check. Laredo, Texas, has grown to become a sizable market as it sees inbound cross-border volumes from Mexico, while also being one of the markets for the beginning of produce season. For right now, though, Laredo has seen little issue with carrier capacity as outbound tender rejections sit at 4.2%. While there is some tightening capacity as outbound tender rejections rise, it’s not enough of an increase to the Outbound Tender Reject Index to impact capacity significantly. Outbound tender volumes have also started falling, dropping 3.01% week over week.
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