(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump has floated talks with his Chinese counterpart more than half a dozen times since the trade war started. But prospects look remote, even as their tariff fight appears to have peaked.
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Inflicting trade pain is unlikely to bring President Xi Jinping to the negotiating table. Instead, Chinese authorities seem intent on proving that they can withstand more economic and political suffering than their archrival.
On Friday, Beijing hiked tariffs on all US goods to 125%, mirroring a move by the White House that pushed duties on Chinese imports to the same level, on top of an existing 20% tax. China said it won’t match any further hikes, calling the repeated use of steep tariffs economically meaningless, but reiterated its vow to “fight to the end” with other, unspecified countermeasures.
“The fact that the Chinese authorities have once again matched US tariff hikes suggests that they are in no rush to negotiate with the Trump administration,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics.
For talks to happen, Beijing would likely want more than just a pause in tariffs, like the 90-day reprieve Trump gave other trade partners. China has called for dialogue on an equal basis and with mutual respect. So far, Trump’s answered every retaliation with more tariffs and pushing the two sides closer to a drawn-out dispute that could put their $690 billion in trade on the line.
“The complaint in Beijing is that they can’t get a consistent set of demands from the Trump administration,” said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics. “It’s hard to negotiate when the other side won’t say what they want, or when the demands are constantly shifting.”
Despite that, Trump has continued to express optimism about eventually talking with Xi. Over the past week, he’s called the Chinese leader a “friend” and said he has “great respect” for him — highlighting Trump’s preference for negotiating leader-to-leader, even in the early stages of talks. He’s also praised other trade partners who reached out after his tariff announcements rather than retaliate, suggesting he wants Beijing to follow a similar path.
“China also wants to make a deal, badly, but they don’t know how to get it started. We are waiting for their call. It will happen!” Trump posted this week on social media.
White House officials have said the steep tariff rates will eventually push Xi to pick up the phone. Trump’s top economic adviser Kevin Hassett suggested it’s only a matter of time “because the pressure on China right now is extreme.”
Xi on Friday made his first public remarks on the escalating trade war, saying China is unafraid of any “unjustified suppression” and will stay focused on its own path, no matter how the external environment changes.
“China will by no means be coerced into coming to the negotiation table,” said Shen Jianguang, who met with Premier Li Qiang this week along with other experts consulted for their views on the economy. China needs positive signal from Trump that he’s sincere about a “mutually beneficial deal” for talks to happen, said the Hong Kong-based chief economist of JD.com Inc. (JD).
The Trump administration’s chaotic messaging on tariffs has only clouded the outlook of talks further. After slapping steep global tariffs that rattled markets, Trump quickly reversed course, granting a 90-day pause to nearly 60 countries — except China. Instead, he doubled down, hiking tariffs on all Chinese imports.
That’s left both sides with limited room to de-escalate, even as the economic toll of the trade war continues to mount.
“Both sides are unwilling to talk at the moment and are unlikely to start talks until there’s enough pain at home,” said Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “On the US side, that means the market and especially popularity among Trump space. And on the Chinese side it means the economic impact for exports and jobs.”
ANKARA, TURKIYE – APRIL 10: In this photo illustration portraits of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are displayed on computer screen as US flag is seen in Ankara, Turkiye on April 10, 2025. (Photo by Dilara Irem Sancar/Anadolu via Getty Images) ·Anadolu via Getty Images
Some prominent Chinese scholars are framing US-China relations as a competition of who suffers less, a “negative sum game” where both sides lose.
“As long as my rival suffers a greater loss than me, that is an acceptable outcome,” Zhang Yuyan, director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in January, referring to the mindset driving some of the US policy decisions on China.
This “who-loses-more” way of thinking now applies to trade, ideology and geopolitics, political scientist Zheng Yongnian wrote in recent commentary. While he called retaliation against the US “inevitable and necessary,” he said China’s long-term goal should be on building a resilient industrial system to ultimately come out on top.
There are still viable paths back to the negotiating table for Xi.
One option — according to Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University’s Center for American Studies in Shanghai — would be for Trump to open talks on fentanyl and reward any progress by removing the 20% tariffs tied to the US complaint.
The president could then pause the broader tariffs and allow face-to-face dialogue at a ministerial level, paving the way for leadership talks, Wu added.
In the meantime, Beijing is preparing to boost its resilience against economic pressure. Top leaders held an ad hoc meeting on Thursday to discuss additional stimulus measures, such as supporting housing and consumer spending, Bloomberg reported earlier.
Beijing is also looking to strengthen ties with other trading partners. Xi met with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Friday, and will visit Southeast Asia next week. Top European Union officials are planning to meet with Xi later this year, Bloomberg reported earlier.
China still has tools to turn up the pressure on the US without relying on tariffs. Authorities on Thursday announced curbs on imports of Hollywood firms, opening a new front in the trade war that targets US services, one of the few areas where America runs a surplus with China.
Beijing could also let the yuan weaken further, putting pressure on the dollar, or stoke speculation about selling Treasuries, according to Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis.
“China still has a lot of leverage, a lot,” she said. “More so because the US economy won’t do well, especially in the second half of the year so the leverage might actually increase rather than decrease.”
—With assistance from Josh Xiao, Jordan Fabian, Josh Wingrove and Justin Sink.
